Authors
Brandon Wolding (NOAA/PSL), Juliana Dias (NOAA/PSL), Maria Gehne (NOAA/PSL), George Kiladis (NOAA/PSL)

Abstract

A plume model is applied to NOAA IGRA soundings and ERA5 reanalysis thermodynamic profiles to assess the relative importance of lower tropospheric moisture and temperature variability in the convective coupling of equatorial waves. IMERG precipitation and NOAA OLR variability show little coherence with plume model estimates of lower tropospheric (1000 - 600 hPa) vertically integrated plume buoyancy (VIB) when zero-entrainment is prescribed. In contrast, precipitation and OLR are shown to vary coherently with VIB when “deep-inflow” entrainment is prescribed, highlighting that entrainment of environmental air over a deep layer of the lower troposphere plays an important role in modifying the thermodynamic properties of convective plumes in the Tropics. Consistent with previous studies, moisture variability is found to play a more dominant role than temperature variability in the convective coupling of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), equatorial Rossby (ER) waves, and easterly waves (EW) over the ocean, while temperature variability is found to play a comparable or even dominant role in the convective coupling of Kelvin (KW) and inertio-gravity (IG) waves. Large-scale variations in sub-cloud layer (1000-950 hPa) MSE play a relatively minor role in convective coupling, which is most strongly impacted by moisture variations in overlaying portions of the boundary layer (950 - 850 hPa) and the lower free troposphere (850-600 hPa) for the MJO, ERs, and oceanic EWs, and by lower free tropospheric temperature variations in KWs and IGs. Single sentence regarding results of applying to UFS reforecasts.