Authors
Alexander Thompson (CIRES,NOAA/PSL), Kelly Mahoney (NOAA/PSL)
Abstract
Physically-realistic projections of future extreme precipitation require high-resolution (km-scale) convection-resolving model simulations. The CONUS404 project, led by NCAR and the USGS, produced Contiguous United States (CONUS) simulations for 1979-2022 by downscaling the ECMWF Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) product onto a 4-km grid using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. CONUS404 has also been complemented with a pseudo-global warming (PGW) future climate simulation whereby the ensemble-mean temperature change from the CESM2 Large Ensemble over 2022-2063 was applied to the same 1979-2022 timeframe of ERA5. To further complement these high-resolution CONUS datasets and provide a broader range of uncertainty regarding future weather and climate, we present our experimental design and work currently underway at NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory to directly downscale mean state bias corrected individual members of the CESM2 Large Ensemble onto the same CONUS404 WRF domain. We aim for these simulations to be fit-for-purpose for a broad community of stakeholders with high resolution data needs. This project is part of a larger effort at NOAA to employ large ensembles of km-scale model simulations per recommendations put forth by a National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report for modernizing estimates of probable maximum precipitation.