Authors
Jianhao Zhang (CIRES,NOAA/CSL), Yaosheng Chen (CIRES,NOAA/CSL), Takanobu Yamaguchi (CIRES,NOAA/CSL), Edward Gryspeerdt (Imperial College London), Graham Feingold (NOAA/CSL)
Abstract
Reduction in aerosol cooling unmasks greenhouse gas warming, exacerbating the rate of future
warming. The strict sulfur regulation on shipping fuel implemented in 2020 (IMO2020) presents an
opportunity to assess the potential impacts of such emission regulations and the detectability of
deliberate aerosol perturbations for climate intervention. Here we employ machine learning to capture
cloud natural variability and estimate a radiative forcing of +0.074 +-0.005 W m-2 related to IMO2020
associated with changes in shortwave cloud radiative effect over three low-cloud regions where
shipping routes prevail. We find low detectability of the cloud radiative effect of this event, attributed to strong natural variability in cloud albedo and cloud cover. Regionally, detectability is higher for the
southeastern Atlantic stratocumulus deck. These results raise concerns that future reductions in
aerosol emissions will accelerate warming and that proposed deliberate aerosol perturbations such as marine cloud brightening will need to be substantial in order to overcome the low detectability.