Authors
Kyle Manley (CIRES,Earth Lab), Spencer Wood (University of Washington), Code Evers (Portland State University), Holly Nowell (Tall Timbers), Jennifer K. Balch (CIRES,ESIIL, Earth Lab, GEOG), Anna LoPresti (EBIO), Tyler McIntosh (CIRES,Earth Lab, GEOG), Katherine Siegel (CIRES,ESIIL, GEOG), Laura Dee (EBIO)

Abstract

Fire is a major driver of change in social-ecological systems, altering ecological processes, human-nature interactions, and the benefits people derive from nature. While wildfire policy and research have largely focused on biophysical impacts-such as to ecosystem structure, soils, and carbon-and social impacts have focused on safety and structural impacts in the wildland-urban interface, far less attention has been paid to fire's effects on non-material contributions of nature to people, such as recreation. Recreation not only supports the well-being of individuals and communities but also underpins many local and regional economies. However, these values are rarely incorporated into fire planning or climate risk assessments. This study quantifies the effect of both wildfire and prescribed fire on outdoor recreation across public lands in Colorado and California. Using digital mobility data (i.e., social media, mobile phone, and crowdsourced data), we model monthly visitation within burn perimeters (2020 - 2024); scales previously difficult to get comprehensive visitation insights on. By combining these models with causal inference techniques, we assess how visitation responds to fire type (wildfire vs. prescribed), severity, and land management context. Our findings will provide empirical evidence to inform more holistic approaches to climate adaptation and fire management, highlighting vulnerabilities of recreation to fire and how prescribed fire can serve as a tool for supporting sociocultural benefits from nature. Understanding these dynamics is particularly essential as climate change accelerates and fire regimes continue to shift.