Authors
Naman Kishan Rastogi (CIRES), Balaji Rajagopalan (CIRES), Nanditha JS (Princeton University)
Abstract
Understanding the drivers of interannual streamflow variability in the Brahmaputra River
Basin is essential for improved flood risk assessment and hydrological forecasting. In this
study, we examine the influence of large-scale climate modes and atmospheric dynamics on
the observed streamflow at the Bahadurabad gauge in Bangladesh over the period 1987-2021.
Wet and dry years were identified using the 75th and 40th percentiles of annual streamflow,
respectively, and seasonal mean streamflows were calculated for the monsoon (JJAS) and
its sub-seasons: Early (May-June), Peak (July-August), and Late (September-October). A
broad-scale circulation index representing Indian summer monsoon variability was developed
and found to be strongly correlated with streamflow at Bahadurabad. ERA5 reanalysis
data were used to examine integrated vapor transport (IVT), sea level pressure, and 850
hPa wind components to trace moisture pathways, while SST correlations were analyzed to
explore ENSO-related signals. A Bayesian network framework was applied to evaluate the
causal influence of key climate variables-precipitation, NINO1+2, NINO3, NINO4, Dipole
Mode Index (DMI), West Pacific Index (WPI), and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)-on
streamflow. Bayes Factors were calculated for each covariate and interpreted using Jeffreys'
scale at 95% confidence. Results show precipitation to be the most influential variable
across all seasons, with NINO1+2 and NINO3 exhibiting substantial to strong influence,
with negative associations in wet years and positive in dry years. These findings highlight
the combined roles of regional precipitation and remote ocean-atmosphere interactions in
shaping monsoonal streamflow variability in the Brahmaputra Basin.