Authors
Virginia Iglesias (CIRES)
Abstract
Fire is no longer a challenge isolated to remote ecosystems. It is a nationwide emergency, fueled by climate change and the relentless spread of homes, businesses, and infrastructure into fire-prone areas. As these factors continue to blur the boundary between the built environment and wildland fuels, fire risk is increasingly embedded in the design of our communities. Using high-resolution historical data and forward-looking models, we project fire risk to residential and commercial dwellings in the contiguous U.S. as a function of the co-evolution of fire hazard and development out to 2060. Our results offer a portrait of a near future shaped by the continuation of business-as-usual trends in emissions, land use, and fire management. In this scenario, the likelihood that a home is destroyed by fire doubles nationwide by mid-century. In the West, where risk is expected to increase fourfold, nearly 40% of affected census tracts currently face economic hardship. Half of those additionally contend with language barriers, compounding challenges of evacuation, preparedness, and recovery. Though the West remains the epicenter, signs of an eastward spread of fire risk are emerging across the Central and Eastern U.S. Yet these trajectories are not fixed. Strategic interventions, from climate mitigation to structural retrofits, offer tangible opportunities to alter the course. As fire risk increasingly threatens homes, so too must our national and local approaches to mitigation, adaptation, and resilience.