Authors
Shouyi Wang (CIRES), Antonietta Capotondi (CIRES,NOAA/PSL), Kris Karnauskas (CIRES), Sara Sanchez (CU Boulder), Tongtong Xu (CIRES,NOAA/PSL)

Abstract

In the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), periods of anomalously warm sea surface temperatures are known as positive TNA (pTNA) events. An exceptionally long-lasting pTNA was recently observed across 2023-2024, persisting for a record-breaking 22 months. A deeper understanding of the processes that govern the duration and intensity of pTNA events is important for predicting future extremes. Here we use observations spanning the past 70 years to gain insights on the processes that determine key characteristics of these events. To increase our limited sample size, we also employ a Linear Inverse Model that accurately captures the dynamics of North Atlantic variability. We find that the diversity of pTNA events can be explained by two different types of TNA variability: a coastal mode and basin-wide mode. Strong warming events manifest as a result of a successive sequence of positive coastal mode followed by basin-wide mode. While the two modes are related, we find that they exhibit distinct sensitivities to extra-tropical and inter-basin drivers. Notably the spatiotemporal evolution of the multi-year 2023/24 event is consistent with our framework. Our findings highlight the utility of this TNA diversity framework for understanding the range of climate extremes in the North Atlantic.