Authors
Maxim Muter (CIRES,CU Boulder), Ellie Browne (CIRES,CU Boulder)

Abstract

Based on global modeling studies, new particle formation (NPF) contributes approximately 50% of the world's cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), the particles that seed cloud droplets. Increased CCN concentrations modulate cloud properties by increasing cloud droplet number (CDN), leading to cloud brightening and precipitation suppression – making NPF an important factor in Earth's climate. Despite this, model predictions of CCN and CDN from NPF remain uncertain due to their limited ability to simulate critical NPF processes, motivating the use of measurement-based approaches to directly estimate CCN. Measurements of CCN at fixed supersaturations do not translate directly to CDN, however, because they neglect water-vapor competition within actual cloud parcels. Measurement-based studies therefore benefit from modeling of potential CDN as well, particularly in high aerosol number concentration environments. The Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) provides continuous aerosol size distribution and meteorological data, enabling CDN modeling from observations of NPF events. Here we present eight years (2017–2024) of NPF frequency, characteristics, and CCN impacts at SGP. Using Pyrcel, a zero-dimensional adiabatic cloud parcel model, we quantify the impact of NPF on potential CDN across seasons. NPF robustly increases CCN and CDN throughout the year, with the largest relative impacts occurring in winter when background aerosol concentrations are lowest. These findings highlight the importance of NPF to cloud-relevant aerosol concentrations over agricultural regions, with implications for aerosol-cloud interactions and climate model parameterizations.