Authors
Dylan C. Gaeta (CIRES,NOAA/GML), Scot M. Miller (Johns Hopkins University), Jens Mühle (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego), Isaac J. Vimont (NOAA/GML), Molly Crotwell (CIRES,NOAA/GML), Lei Hu (NOAA/GML), Stephen Montzka (NOAA/GML)

Abstract

Methyl bromide (CH₃Br) is an ozone-depleting substance (ODS) that by 2015 was globally phased out of use for most applications under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. However, the Montreal Protocol includes exemptions for quarantine and pre-shipment (QPS) uses, and existing bottom-up inventories of CH₃Br consumption and/or emissions for the U.S. provide conflicting information on CH₃Br use over time. In this study, we use long-term atmospheric measurements of CH₃Br from the NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML) Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network (GGGRN) to estimate CH₃Br emissions from the contiguous United States for years 2007-2018, a time period that encompasses the phase-out of most Montreal Protocol exemptions. Specifically, we assimilate tall tower, observatory, and aircraft flask-sample measurements of CH₃Br from the NOAA GGGRN and footprints from the NOAA CarbonTracker-Lagrange public data release in a geostatistical inverse model (GIM) to estimate spatially gridded monthly and annual CH₃Br emissions and corresponding uncertainties. To help improve our inverse model estimate, we incorporate inventory data sets of CH₃Br production, consumption, and end uses from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Emissions Inventory (NEI), and the California Department of Pesticide Regulation (CDPR) as predictor variables in the GIM. Overall, we find that California is the dominant source of CH₃Br emissions from the U.S., accounting for >50% of national emissions, both before and after the 2015 Montreal Protocol phase-out deadline. We find that U.S. CH₃Br emissions declined by ~1 Gg yr⁻¹ (56.6%), down from a mean of 1.69 Gg yr⁻¹ in 2007-2010 to a mean of 0.73 Gg yr⁻¹ in 2015-2018. We observe a notably large decline in late summer/early fall emissions of CH₃Br in California, consistent with the 2015 phase-out of soil fumigation with CH₃Br for strawberry farming. Despite the reduction, CH₃Br emissions from the U.S. did not decline to zero after 2015, predominantly due to two ongoing exemptions: 1) QPS fumigation at/near international shipping ports and 2) fumigation for very select agricultural uses (e.g., strawberry nursery plants). Our work highlights the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol in reducing CH₃Br emissions from most end uses, but it also highlights that CH₃Br emissions related to international trade and from agricultural uses like strawberry farming present an ongoing challenge.