Authors
Dylan C. Gaeta (CIRES,NOAA/GML), Scot M. Miller (Johns Hopkins University), Jens Mühle (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego), Isaac J. Vimont (NOAA/GML), Molly Crotwell (CIRES,NOAA/GML), Lei Hu (NOAA/GML), Stephen Montzka (NOAA/GML)
Abstract
Methyl bromide (CHâBr) is an ozone-depleting substance (ODS) that by 2015 was globally phased out of use for most applications under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. However, the Montreal Protocol includes exemptions for quarantine and pre-shipment (QPS) uses, and existing bottom-up inventories of CHâBr consumption and/or emissions for the U.S. provide conflicting information on CHâBr use over time. In this study, we use long-term atmospheric measurements of CHâBr from the NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML) Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network (GGGRN) to estimate CHâBr emissions from the contiguous United States for years 2007-2018, a time period that encompasses the phase-out of most Montreal Protocol exemptions. Specifically, we assimilate tall tower, observatory, and aircraft flask-sample measurements of CHâBr from the NOAA GGGRN and footprints from the NOAA CarbonTracker-Lagrange public data release in a geostatistical inverse model (GIM) to estimate spatially gridded monthly and annual CHâBr emissions and corresponding uncertainties. To help improve our inverse model estimate, we incorporate inventory data sets of CHâBr production, consumption, and end uses from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Emissions Inventory (NEI), and the California Department of Pesticide Regulation (CDPR) as predictor variables in the GIM. Overall, we find that California is the dominant source of CHâBr emissions from the U.S., accounting for >50% of national emissions, both before and after the 2015 Montreal Protocol phase-out deadline. We find that U.S. CHâBr emissions declined by ~1 Gg yrâ»Â¹ (56.6%), down from a mean of 1.69 Gg yrâ»Â¹ in 2007-2010 to a mean of 0.73 Gg yrâ»Â¹ in 2015-2018. We observe a notably large decline in late summer/early fall emissions of CHâBr in California, consistent with the 2015 phase-out of soil fumigation with CHâBr for strawberry farming. Despite the reduction, CHâBr emissions from the U.S. did not decline to zero after 2015, predominantly due to two ongoing exemptions: 1) QPS fumigation at/near international shipping ports and 2) fumigation for very select agricultural uses (e.g., strawberry nursery plants). Our work highlights the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol in reducing CHâBr emissions from most end uses, but it also highlights that CHâBr emissions related to international trade and from agricultural uses like strawberry farming present an ongoing challenge.