. Early detection of solar flares using high sensitivity EUV data

Abstract
The first space weather effects of major solar flares are generally already being felt at Earth by the time the onset of the flare has been detected. Radio blackouts, driven by enhancement of the D-layer of the ionosphere by solar X-rays, occur nearly simultaneously to the flare. Energetic particles, which pose risks to technological infrastructure and, more importantly, health hazards to astronauts, can arrive at Earth within minutes on the flare onset. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center issues alerts to warn of space weather impacts from flares using X-ray irradiance measurements from the GOES/X-Ray Sensor instrument. To mitigate false flare detections, SWPC's current flare detection requires a 4-minute continuous increase and a minimum 40% increase in the integrated X-ray flux to classify an event as a flare, building an inherent delay into SWPC's response to a flare. We propose for the first time to use EUV images for improved flare forecasting and detection. Real-time full-disk images are now available from the Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI) on NOAA's GOES spacecraft with the lowest ever latency for solar EUV images. We have developed an algorithm that can extract intensity and location for any signs of increased EUV intensity associated with the onset of a solar flare. Our initial results show that with our algorithm we can identify flares in EUV wavelengths several minutes before the X-ray flare detection threshold is reached. We propose to develop this approach to run operationally in real time and to develop predictive tools based on the measurements produced by this algorithm. With this we aim to forecast the severity of space weather impacts including radio blackouts and particle impacts before the event peak is reached.