. Projecting Future Temperature-Driven Changes in Crime

Abstract
Recent research has found consistent evidence of a robust connection between temperature and crime rates. Though a small handful of earlier studies have produced projections of changes in crime rates attributable to our changing climate, a novel methodology accounts for the seasonality of the temperature-crime relationship and allows for greater differentiation between various regions of the US. Projections will incorporate global climate model output at several time and temperature end points, as well as the various socioeconomic scenarios used by climate models, to characterize potential changes in crime and their uncertainty.