. Projected changes in aridity and implications for US grassland conservation

Abstract
Based on the most recent climate change projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), North America will experience a transition in hydroclimate over the 21st century. Multiple studies indicate that changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration may result in increased aridity in some regions. In order to understand the potential implications of these trends for habitat conservation, we analyzed projected changes in the aridity index (AI) across existing protected areas in US grasslands, and compared these projections to historical relationships between AI and remotely-sensed vegetation indices. The greatest absolute increases in aridity are projected to occur in the southeastern plains. We summarize the potential implications of these changes for grassland conservation and management.