WCD-09. Evaluating Lower-Atmospheric Thermodynamic Variability over Northern Alaska under Arctic Amplification

Abstract
Is the Arctic's lower troposphere exhibiting effects due to changes in the climate system? Many researchers are using numerical models to project future changes and to assess impacts; others are using reanalysis products based on those models to diagnose changes and current impacts. The reliance on model-based inquiries is sensible for many reasons, including the paucity of long-term observational records above the Arctic's surface. The U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program has been launching radiosondes at their North Slope of Alaska (NSA) Central facility in Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow) since April 2002, and at their Mobile facility in Oliktok Point since August 2015. These high-resolution data provide an opportunity to examine multi-year tropospheric variability, and to get a preliminary idea of its regional coherence. We have therefore begun a climatological study of the lower troposphere's structure over northern Alaska, with an initial focus on thermodynamic quantities related to cloud formation. In this presentation we will evaluate relevant ARM radiosonde profiles, e.g. of temperature, stability, and ice supersaturation; use a non-parametric regression to explore how they vary at the two sites during the period of record; and consider their potential impacts in the current environment.