WCD-31. A DEFT Way to Forecast Solar Flares

Abstract
Solar flares have been linked to some of the most significant space weather hazards at Earth. These hazards, including radio blackouts and energetic particle events, can start just minutes after the flare onset. Therefore, it is of great importance to identify and predict flare events. The Detection and EUV Flare Tracking (DEFT) tool identifies flare signatures and their precursors using high spatial and temporal resolution extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) solar observations from the Solar Ultraviolet Imager instrument aboard the GOES-R satellite. The unique advantage of DEFT is its ability to identify small but significant EUV intensity changes that may lead to solar eruptions. The tool can also identify the location of the disturbances and distinguish events occurring at the same time in multiple locations. In a study of 61 flares observed in 2017, the "main" EUV flare signatures (those closest in time to the X-ray start time) were identified on average 6 minutes early. The "precursor" EUV signatures (second-closest EUV signatures to the X-ray start time) appeared on average 14 minutes early. Our goal is to develop an operational version of DEFT which could significantly improve space weather forecast times.